Voters go to the polls in a sour mood on prices, with growth at 3.4 percent and unemployment near record lows

Both things are true at once, and Tuesday's result may turn on which one voters believe. The growth is real. Business investment rose at a 12.7 percent annual pace in the third quarter, equipment spending jumped 20.9 percent, and the artificial intelligence building boom has carried the stock market to dozens of record highs this year, padding retirement accounts. More Americans are employed than ever before.

The pinch is also real. Inflation is not close to the levels of a few years ago, but it has not gone away, and people meet it at the gas pump, in the utility bill and on every restaurant check. September's figures showed energy prices doing much of the damage, with gasoline and other energy goods up 9.2 percent in the month. Real disposable income fell 0.3 percent in September, and households saved 3.8 percent of it, down from 5.1 percent in March, as of September.

The two big consumer surveys disagree with each other, which tells its own story. The Conference Board's confidence measure improved in October, while the University of Michigan's sentiment index sits near a record low. Brian Jacobsen of Annex Wealth Management told Reuters the confidence index follows the wider economy, while the sentiment index asks people how their own finances feel. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has spent the final weeks pointing at the growth numbers. The opposition has spent them pointing at prices. Trump is not on Tuesday's ballot, but his economic record is, and both parties know it.