One week out, the polls put Democrats ahead nationally and Senate control on a knife edge

Six days before the midterms, every national measure released this week points the same direction, and every close Senate race still sits inside its own margin of error.

The Harvard CAPS Harris poll for October put the president approval at 39 percent, a three point drop from September, as of October 28. His strongest numbers are immigration and fighting crime in American cities, both at 44 percent. His weakest are the ones voters feel at the store: 33 percent approval on inflation, 34 percent on tariffs and trade, and 34 percent on the economy. Sixty four percent of voters said the economy is on the wrong track, up seven points in a month, and three in five hold Trump responsible. Democrats lead the horserace 52 to 48 among general voters and hold the same four point lead among likely voters, with 56 percent of independents leaning Democratic. Seventy eight percent of voters say they will definitely or probably vote. Republican party approval fell to 41 percent, a five year low in this poll, against 45 percent for the Democratic Party.

A second national survey landed in the same place. The Reuters Ipsos Core Political survey, conducted October 22 to 26, put Democrats ahead 53 to 44 on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters, a nine point gap. A generic ballot measures the national mood rather than any single district, and control of the House and Senate will be decided district by district and state by state. Both polls carry sampling error, and both were taken before the final week of campaigning.

The Senate map explains why a national lead does not settle the outcome. Republicans hold the chamber 53 to 47. Fox News final Power Rankings rate the Republican held seats in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Texas as toss ups. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown challenge to appointed Senator Jon Husted moved from toss up to lean Democrat in the final rankings. South Carolina moved from likely Republican to lean Republican after appointed Senator Darlene Graham drew a serious challenge, and Mississippi moved from solid to likely Republican. Kansas stayed lean Republican, with Senator Roger Marshall in a rough reelection fight. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins faces Troy Jackson, and a Marist poll put that race in a dead heat. In Texas, Ken Paxton and James Talarico remain tied or within two points in every public poll of the past two weeks.

The Harvard poll also measured the war hanging over the election. Forty eight percent of voters said Trump handling of the Iran conflict makes them more likely to vote Democratic, and 61 percent opposed buying oil and diesel from Russia while the Ukraine war continues, even as 54 percent supported his deal to lift diesel sanctions. Polls describe the country one week out. They do not vote. The count on November 3 decides whether these numbers were a forecast or a snapshot of a mood that moved.