Hurricane Simon changes course and skirts Mexico's coast; Sunday landfall no longer expected

Category 4 Hurricane Simon changed course on Sunday and is now expected to remain offshore through Monday, a shift that spares Mexico's Pacific coast the direct landfall forecasters had feared while keeping millions under hurricane warnings.

After initial models projected a Sunday landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Simon's path bent and its track became harder to predict. The National Hurricane Center's 1 p.m. ET advisory put maximum sustained winds at 140 miles per hour, with the storm moving north northwest at 7 miles per hour. Its center sat about 85 miles west northwest of Manzanillo and 65 miles south southeast of Cabo Corrientes in Jalisco.

Mexico's civil protection coordinator Laura Velazquez told reporters the storm was "very close to the Mexican coast" even without landfall and that its effects, strong winds, high waves and storm surge, would continue through Monday, mainly along the northern coast of Jalisco.

The danger is far from over. Simon's eye swirled parallel to the coast on Sunday, closing on the Puerto Vallarta area, where the most damaging winds and rain were expected around midnight into Monday morning. The hurricane center said it was not clear whether the center would ever move inland, and the uncertainty itself is part of the threat: a storm that never lands keeps its strength. Hurricane force winds extend up to 25 miles from Simon's center; tropical storm force winds reach 80 miles.

A hurricane warning remains in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, covering Puerto Vallarta and coastal Nayarit plus Las Islas Marias. A new hurricane watch stretches from El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya.

President Claudia Sheinbaum urged residents of coastal municipalities in Jalisco, Colima, Nayarit and Michoacan to remain sheltered until authorities declared the danger past. Precautionary evacuations continued. Puerto Vallarta's international airport suspended operations. Mexico placed 28 municipalities in Jalisco and Colima under its highest cyclone alert, with another 93 under high alert. The navy deployed more than 4,600 personnel, and heavy rain already flooded homes in Manzanillo, where resident Cecilia Palomar told reporters "the whole house is flooded."

Rainfall totals of up to 30 inches remain possible across Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, with life threatening flooding and mudslides the main threat in the mountainous terrain inland from the resorts.

The morning's forecast had pointed at a direct hit between La Huerta and Tomatlan in southern Jalisco. By Sunday afternoon that landfall was no longer expected, though models remain split on whether Simon ever moves inland or turns back toward the coast later in the week.