Israel's election leaves Netanyahu's bloc at 53 seats, short of a government, and both sides arguing over the count

Israel voted on Tuesday for the first time since the October 7 attack, and the count has produced a stalemate. With roughly 86 percent of ballots counted as of October 29, Netanyahu's bloc of right wing and religious parties is projected at 53 seats in the 120 seat Knesset. The opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief, is projected at 48. Two Arab led parties together hold 19 seats. Sixty one seats are needed to form a government, and neither bloc has them.

Likud remains the largest single party, with a projected 26 seats, five more than Eisenkot's Yashar party. The result still cuts hard against Netanyahu. His governing coalition won 64 seats in the 2022 election. Turnout reached about 78 percent, the highest in nearly three decades. Hundreds of thousands of special ballots cast by soldiers, reservists, diplomats and hospitalized or displaced voters are still being counted, and those ballots have historically leaned toward right wing lists. Official results are due by November 4.

President Isaac Herzog, who will consult party leaders once the results are certified and then name the lawmaker he judges most likely to build a coalition, made his first public remarks on Wednesday. "We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections," Herzog said. "So, I expect everyone who comes here to come with an open mind." Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister while the bargaining runs.

The count itself has become a fight. Netanyahu and Likud have alleged that Arab parties stole the election through bribery, threats, forgery and illegal voter turnout software, and Likud says it has handed hundreds of testimonies to the police, the Shin Bet security agency and the Central Elections Committee. The Arab parties reject the allegations. The elections committee chair said he could not verify the suspicions and asked the Shin Bet to investigate, and the agency has cautioned against treating the inquiry as an accusation against an entire community. Herzog has called for a full investigation into suspected foreign interference while warning against casting suspicion on Arab voters as a group. Eisenkot has accused Netanyahu of using the allegations to delegitimize a result he dislikes.

Both bloc leaders have ruled out governing with the Arab parties, which is what makes the arithmetic so hard. If neither man can assemble 61 seats, Israel faces another election and months more of caretaker rule.