Consumer sentiment falls to 48.0 in October, the second lowest reading on record, ten days before the midterms

American households are nearly as gloomy about the economy as they have ever been, and the final reading before the midterm elections says so in one number. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers put its Consumer Sentiment Index at 48.0 in October, down from a final 48.1 in September. The reading is the second lowest on record, behind only the all time low of 44.8 set in May, a few months after the Iran war began. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 46.3, which was also the preliminary October reading, so the final figure came in a little better than expected and still near the floor.

“Purchasing power continues to dominate consumer views of the economy,” said Joanne Hsu, the director of the Surveys of Consumers. Sentiment now stands 10 percent below a year ago and 15 percent below February, just prior to the Iran conflict.

The drop was led by the voters both parties are fighting over. Broken down by party, the weaker sentiment came from respondents who identify as independents. Their score fell to 42.4 in October, just above May record low of 40.6, from 47.7 in September. Scores for Democrats and Republicans both improved.

Households also expect prices to keep climbing. Expectations for inflation over the next year rose to 4.7 percent from 4.6 percent in September, and they have risen from 3.4 percent in February, before the American and Israeli war with Iran started. Expectations for inflation over the next five years rose to 3.5 percent from 3.4 percent.

The survey fits the rest of the October picture. The national average price of regular gasoline stood at 4.29 dollars a gallon this week, and Brent crude settled at 116.72 dollars a barrel on Friday, as of the October 23 close. Millions of voters have already cast early ballots, and the November 3 election will decide control of Congress for the final two years of President Trump term. Reuters reported that polls show Republicans are likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, and that the president approval rating in a Reuters and Ipsos poll sits at a record low, driven by fuel prices. This story reports the survey and the polling. It is not a recommendation about money or voting.