A new Washington Post ABC News Ipsos poll puts President Trump approval at 33 percent two weeks before the midterms

With sixteen days left before the midterm elections, the newest national poll is the hardest one the White House has received this cycle. The Washington Post ABC News Ipsos survey, released on October 18, found 33 percent of American adults approve of President Trump job performance while 66 percent disapprove, as of October 18. Fifty two percent said they strongly disapprove. The approval figure is down from 37 percent in the same survey in April and in July, and it is the lowest the poll has recorded for the president in either of his terms. A Fox News poll released on October 14 also marked the lowest approval rating for the president in that network polling across both terms.

The numbers underneath the headline are about prices and war. Around three in four respondents disapproved of the president handling of the cost of living and inflation. The poll found Democrats trusted more than Republicans on the economy, 40 percent to 33 percent, which USA Today reported is the first time in more than a decade that Democrats have led on that question in this polling. Registered voters preferred Democrats for control of the House by eight points, up from a three point advantage in July, and said by 58 percent to 39 percent that they would rather elect Democrats to act as a check on the White House, a margin the poll found has roughly doubled in a year.

The Senate map gives Republicans hard ground to defend regardless of the national mood. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates races as competitive this year in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Midterm elections historically punish the party holding the White House. In 2018, during the president first term, Democrats gained 41 House seats.

A poll is a measurement of a moment, not a result. What this one measures, two weeks out, is an electorate whose stated concerns are the cost of living and the war with Iran and its effect on family finances, and which is telling pollsters it blames the party in power for both. November 3 will say whether the measurement was right.