Spanish polls put conservatives and Vox on course for combined majority

Two polls published on Friday put the centre right People's Party at 31.9 percent, with the PP and the far right Vox together on 198 seats combined, above the 176 seats needed for a majority in the November 29 snap election. Vox would roughly double its vote. The Socialists would fall to 112 seats from 121.

Polls are snapshots, not results, and seven weeks of campaigning can move numbers. But the figures describe a clear shift in Spanish politics. Defeat for the Socialists would end one of Europe's last left leaning governments. A PP Vox pact would bring the far right into national government for the first time since the death of Francisco Franco, a line that has held for half a century.

The stakes are plain. Spain has been an exception in a Europe where the far right has already entered government in several countries or stands at the door. If the numbers hold through November 29, that exception ends, and the far right moves from opposition benches into the council of ministers. The campaign will now be fought over whether voters want that line crossed.

The arithmetic is what matters now. With 198 seats against 176 needed, the polls describe not just a lead but a workable majority, the kind that lets a government pass budgets and survive no confidence votes. For the Socialists the numbers describe the opposite: 112 seats, down from 121, and the end of a government that has been one of the last left leaning holdouts in Europe. Vox roughly doubling its vote is the engine of the shift, the smaller partner turning into a near equal.

The Franco line has been the deepest taboo in Spanish democracy, and the polls say it may fall on November 29. Whether it does depends on seven weeks of campaigning, and polls have missed before. But the direction is no longer in doubt. Spain is deciding whether the far right governs, and the rest of Europe is watching the decision.