Pentagon orders CENTCOM ready to resume major combat operations in Iran

The seven month war between the United States and Iran may be about to get much bigger. The Pentagon has instructed U.S. Central Command to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran, Axios reported Wednesday, citing U.S. officials. No date was set, and President Trump has made no final decision, but the order to finish the preparations is the step that comes before the decision, not after it.

If major combat resumes, U.S. and Israeli sources say it would likely be a joint American Israeli campaign hitting Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets, the kind of broad bombing designed to break a regime's capacity to fight rather than to send a message. The Atlantic separately reported that the White House has asked the Pentagon for strike options that could be exercised before the November 3 midterm elections. Trump himself said Wednesday that he no longer wants a deal with Tehran, even as his envoy Steve Witkoff continues working talks. Vice President Vance told Reuters this week that Tehran must make a "meaningful" cut to nuclear enrichment to end the war. The mixed signals are the strategy: negotiate while the bombers are fueled.

The cost ledger is now public and it is staggering. A Congressional Research Service report says the United States has lost or damaged 81 aircraft in the Iran war, nearly double the 42 counted in May, including an F-35A, an E-3 Sentry, 12 F-15Es, 7 KC-135 tankers and 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones, some of which returned to service. The price tag on the losses runs up to $3.3 billion, and total war costs are at least $45 billion by CNN's sourcing. Reuters reported that tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest weekly count since the war began, more than a dozen in a week. Brent crude rose 2 to 3 percent on the Axios news, because oil markets understand what Washington keeps debating: a resumed air campaign means more tankers burning in the strait and more gasoline prices at home.

Iran is bracing. The Bushehr nuclear plant has been hit a third time this month, according to Iranian state media, and Israel says it struck the Arak heavy water plant. Witkoff says the U.S. expects to meet Iran this week and is awaiting Tehran's answer on a reported 15 point deal. Trump has also said the war is "essentially almost over" and predicted victory around the election. Both things cannot be true at once, but they can both be leverage, and leverage is what the next weeks are about.