Trump rules out new strikes on Iran before the midterms

President Donald Trump ruled out new American strikes on Iran before the midterm elections on Thursday, writing on Truth Social that the United States will not "be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" on November 3.

The post landed a day after The Atlantic reported that the White House had directed the Pentagon to draw up limited strike options that could be used before voters go to the polls, and after Axios reported the Pentagon had been told to prepare for possible strikes on Iranian nuclear, military and energy infrastructure. Trump himself told reporters Wednesday that the administration was considering renewed strikes, a comment that helped push Brent crude above 104 dollars a barrel.

In his Thursday post, Trump said the United States was having productive discussions with Iran, which he described as in very bad condition both economically and militarily. He said the blockade of Iran would remain in full force and effect, claimed 22 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz in a single night with none of it touching Iran, and repeated that Iran will not get a nuclear weapon. Analysts dispute his oil flow figures, and the U.S. government and independent analysts disagree on whether Hormuz traffic is back to prewar levels.

Markets barely calmed. Crude pared its gains after the post but still finished sharply higher, with WTI up 3.6 percent to 91.49 dollars a barrel and Brent up 4.1 percent to 104.28, as Hurricane Isaias shut in Gulf production and fighting across the Middle East continued. One analyst noted the market has heard versions of this reassurance before and the pullback is weaker each time.

The politics are plain. The war is in its eighth month, since the United States and Israel struck Iran in February, and it has become one of the heaviest weights on Republican candidates. Gas prices are up roughly 40 percent from a year ago, with the national average at 4.36 dollars a gallon according to AAA, and about 60 percent of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling Iran, per a recent Reuters Ipsos poll. Republican candidates in competitive races have been distancing themselves from the war for weeks.

Tehran is not buying the calm. U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios that Iranian leaders are deeply suspicious of Trump's statements and want to avoid a third surprise attack. Iran's atomic energy chief said Thursday that Tehran will not abandon uranium enrichment or hand over its stockpile, days after Vice President JD Vance told Reuters that Iran must make meaningful cuts to its enrichment capacity. Trump has rejected Tehran's latest proposal and keeps predicting the war will end right after the election.