Trump rallies in San Antonio as Republicans fight to hold Texas

President Donald Trump rallies in San Antonio on Wednesday night, his third trip to Texas in a month, as Republicans fight to hold a state that was once a lock and is now a battleground. He is expected to speak at 6 p.m. Central Time at the Freeman Coliseum, less than a month before the November 3 midterm elections.

The stakes are plain. Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, and losing even one chamber would stall the president's legislative agenda and open his administration and family to congressional investigations. In Texas, Democrats have not won a statewide race since 1994, but the ground has shifted: voter registration runs about 45 percent Republican, 40 percent Democrat, and 15 percent independent, and Trump's standing with independents is weak.

The marquee race is the Senate seat held by John Cornyn. Trump is backing Attorney General Ken Paxton, a candidate carrying bribery allegations and a public marital split. A Siena College poll released October 3 showed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Paxton 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters. The alliance is uneasy: Paxton was recorded telling donors that Republican candidates' numbers fell after the Trump centered convention in Dallas, a remark his campaign disputed, while Trump has publicly mocked Paxton's clothes and speaking style.

Trump headlined the Republican National Convention in Dallas on September 9 and 10 and rallied in Denton on October 1, telling that crowd, "Texas represents so much." On Tuesday he posted on Truth Social, in all caps, "My rallies are saving the Republican Party, again." Gov. Greg Abbott, himself in a closer than expected re-election race, plans to skip Wednesday's rally, citing other campaign events. Rep. Monica De La Cruz is expected to speak.

The deeper problem is demographic. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found just 24 percent of Hispanic voters approve of Trump's performance. Hispanics were central to his 2024 win, when he took nearly half their vote nationally, and Texas has a larger Hispanic share than most states. University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus said the visits cut both ways: "The president can inspire as much as he can repel." Wednesday night will test which effect is stronger.